Final Three Primaries: an Overview

On the heels of the mason dixon poll showing Obama up 17 points in Montana, one might not consider that she has any chance in the upcoming primaries. However, since the campaign of the ESTEEMED senator from Illinois is turing to GE mode a bit prematurely, Senator Clinton may have an opening in the next couple primaries. A few thoughts:
           Puerto Rico: On paper this is a Clinton rout but Obama's considerable cash advantage may allow him to somewhat negate a possible Clinton landslide in the delegate count but not enough to allay a victory in the popular vote, the metric which her campaign is now focused on.

            Montana: Obama will win this independent minded state fairly easily but not by a large enough margin to merit a significant delegate split. This is one state, though, where the Clinton name may still be strong enough (in certain areas) to swing a considerable number of votes, though not on the scale of Arkansas or West Virginia.

            South Dakota: This is the one state that Clinton could potentially pull a come from behind victory in. Though this is one of the few primaries that Bill Clinton lost in 92
(to Bob Kerrey no less), the large number of undecideds that has manifested itself in the few polls taken in this state suggests that Clinton has the potential to score a popular vote victory, albeit a narrow one in this state. If she could pull this off, it would need to be considered a remarkable feat, considering that Daschle, JOhnson, and Herseth-Sandlin are backing Obama.

that is just my two cents worth but please share your opinions and comments regarding this analysis below. BTW, if you feel that I am an idiot, f****r, retard, or troll, there is no need to post your sentiments in the comments section because that would violate the standards of this blog. Thanks.


Poll
How many of the last three primaries will Clinton win the popular vote in?
3
2
1
0

Votes: 26
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Display:


Re: Final Three Primaries: an Overview (1.50 / 2)

...of the ESTEEMED senator from Illinois...

But I thought you said you weren't a troll? Doesn't seem very respectful to a sitting US Senator and the presumptive nominee of our party for the President of the United States.


Hooray for John McCain!
by ragekage on Sun May 25, 2008 at 09:57:56 PM EST

Re: Final Three Primaries: an Overview (none / 0)

Capitalizing an adjective simply means that an emphasis is put on the word. Since many on this site support Obama, I thought that some emphasis on the adjective would please you all. Upon further reflection, however, it looks like it will get me cruicified, just like Clinton and the mis-interpreted RFK comment.


by Ignored and Disgusted on Sun May 25, 2008 at 10:06:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Uh huh (none / 0)

Since many on this site support Obama, I thought that some emphasis on the adjective would please you all.

Yeah... I ain't buyin' it. Sorry.


Hooray for John McCain!
by ragekage on Sun May 25, 2008 at 10:11:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Uh huh (1.00 / 1)

wow, such childish rhetoric form the post-political supporters of Senator Obama. I wonder what he and his silver tongue would say about supporters like you.


by Ignored and Disgusted on Sun May 25, 2008 at 10:13:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final Three Primaries: an Overview (none / 0)

Well, the similarity is you both said something stupid and appear to blame others for taking the remarks in a reasonable and forseeable fashion.

Please, come down from the cross (to use your own analogy).


by Reaper0Bot0 on Sun May 25, 2008 at 10:12:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final Three Primaries: an Overview (none / 0)

Um, she is not going to win South Dakota and Puerto Rico is going to be VERY close.  Before you write your diary how about doing a search on the history of the upcoming primaries.


by sweet potato pie on Sun May 25, 2008 at 10:02:13 PM EST

Re: Final Three Primaries: an Overview (none / 0)

Can you back that claim up with substantive facts?


by Ignored and Disgusted on Sun May 25, 2008 at 10:17:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final Three Primaries: an Overview (none / 0)

Here's a hint, start reading el nuevo dia


by sweet potato pie on Sun May 25, 2008 at 10:27:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final Three Primaries: an Overview (none / 0)

At least you've started to use paragraphs - I now hold you in slightly higher ESTEEM.


From a Hillary supporter: We laughed as that became our mantra - "Barack can't win!"..... ....."he can go to hell and i'll pay for his way there."
by Cochrane on Sun May 25, 2008 at 10:21:24 PM EST

Re: Final Three Primaries: an Overview (none / 0)

Your analysis is fine, but you overlook this:

Number of delegates currently needed to clinch the nomination

Obama 49
Clinton 246


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Sun May 25, 2008 at 10:27:16 PM EST

Re: Final Three Primaries: an Overview (none / 0)

Popular vote in PR, meaningless since they do not vote in the GE
so hence no EV. Not that popular votes means anything in a primary anyway. Estimated Delegate Count C:30 O: 25  (pure guess)

Montana - Obama has been carrying the Mountain states and will probably carry this one, maybe closer maybe not. Rightly or wrongly Clinton popularity in these states tends to be low.

South Dakota, last poll out of this state was updated 4/7 and has Obama 46%, Clinton 34% and Undecided 10%.  This is a six week old poll so it comes with that caveat


Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.
by jsfox on Sun May 25, 2008 at 10:58:55 PM EST


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